NORD STREAM SABOTAGE - AN AMERICAN BLACK OPERATION?

Certainly, if you're into reading Aesop's and Brothers Grimm...

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Persons on the political extremes right and left invented the “news” that suggest Joe Biden has blown up the Nord Stream pipelines, because “that is what he had promised to do.“

I’m hardly a Biden fan, knowing well that everything Joe touched turned to disaster.

The conspiracists’ reasoning is just as disastrous.

Russia has no interest in blowing up “its main source of revenue” they argued, convinced of their own drivel.

Russia? “No way,” said these bright bulbs. “Russia won’t act against its interests.”

Certainly not, unless blowing up the pipeline was - in Russia’s interest.

The first problem with the narrative is the timeline seen below.

The second problem is that Biden promised no such thing.

The third problem is that Nord Stream provides zero revenue to Russia. Never mind “major revenues.”

The fourth is that Nord Stream was not blown up.

THE TIMELINE

BIDEN PUSHES AGAINST SANCTIONS FOR NORD STREAM  – DEC. 3, 2021

Biden had slow-walked American response to the Russian build-up. In fact, Biden resisted American involvement supplying weapons to Ukraine as far back as April 2022. Meanwhile the U.K.’s Boris Johnson became the leader of the free world.

BIDEN THREATENS TO “END” NORD STREAM  - FEB. 7, 2022

“US President Joe Biden said an invasion of Ukraine by Russia would put an end to the Nord Stream 2 pipeline project.”

Note the wording: “project,” not “pipeline.”

In limbo since September 2021, Nord Stream 2 never went online. The Germans never licensed Nord Stream 2. Left unfinished, it remained inoperative. It was at this early time that Biden threatened Russia with sanctions against the pipeline “project” meant to shut it down to deprive Russia of revenue. Within days…

GERMANY DECERTIFIES AND CLOSES DOWN NORD STREAM - FEBRUARY 22, 2022

Europe was not getting Russian nor wanting Russian gas anyway - that, seven months ago. The most powerful nation of the EU called the shots and decided to end the Nord Stream “project.” Biden merely followed Europe’s lead, as he followed Boris Johnson’s providing Ukraine with military aid.

EXCERPT: “Germany on Tuesday halted the Nord Stream 2 Baltic Sea gas pipeline project, designed to double the flow of Russian gas direct to Germany…worth $11 billion. It was finished in September, but has stood idle pending certification by Germany and the European Union.”

BIDEN REVERSES COURSE ON NORD STREAM 2 – FEBRUARY 23, 2022

Having imposed sanctions on Nord Stream, the E.U., later Biden effectively sabotaged its commercial potential. He acted after Germany had already closed the Nord Stream door.

EXCERPT: “Nine months after waiving sanctions against the principal players in the Nord Stream 2 pipeline project, President Biden on Wednesday reversed course, as part of the administration’s response…  ”Today, I have directed my administration to impose sanctions on Nord Stream 2 AG and its corporate officers,” Biden said in a statement, referring to the consortium led by the Russian state-owned Gazprom…”

VIDEO OF BIDEN’S OLD NEWS THREAT RESURFACES SEPT 27, 2022

The sensationalists on the extremes picked up the old news, aka, “fake news” story around the end of September, and made a disingenuous mountain out of a molehill to serve their previous anti-Ukraine-pro-Russia narratives.

EXCERPT: “A video of President Joe Biden saying that he would "end" the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline has resurfaced after Nord Stream 1 and 2 were damaged in what's been described as an act of sabotage…Fox News host Tucker Carlson suggested on Monday that Biden could be responsible for the damage to the Russian-owned pipelines, neither of which were operational when they experienced major leaks into the Baltic Sea…Several Twitter users shared an ABC News video of Biden from February 7, 2022, discussing Nord Stream 2 and appeared to link his previous remarks with damage to the pipelines…”

CONCLUSION. As of February 2022, Nord Stream 2 has not gone into operation. Nord Stream I was transmitting 20% of its normal output, as Russia later had shut it down too - as it promised to do. The explosions took place at the end of September 2022, seven months later. There was no reason for the US or other NATO nations to blow up a pipeline that was not supplying energy, that Russia itself had shut down, an asset not providing revenue to Russia.

The mutual U.S.-E.U. decision to terminate the business relationship was to deprive Russia of revenue and the unforeseen potential to blackmail the continent.

So far only Russia has suffered most of the cost for having constructed Nord Stream, and it will bear most of the loss.

However, there were many reasons for Russia to blow it up!

PHOTO BY THE AUTHOR OF THE RUSSIAN NAVY

Since NORD STREAM no longer served as a revenue stream for the Kremlin, or as an energy transmission stream with which it could have blackmailed Europe, it made sense to sow discontent in the western media and political circles susceptible to disinformation, propaganda, and conspiracy theories. The genesis of the sabotage is otherwise known in Russian intelligence as “active measures.”

For decades Russia has been active in its goals to fracture NATO and the EU. The Nord Stream incidents have added to the divisiveness among the SCHENGEN nations. One group of nations reliant on Russian nuclear technology had to also rely on other Russian energy delivery because they are landlocked. The other group, wealthier because among others they have seaports, relied less, or not at all, on Russian energy.

PHOTO BY THE AUTHOR OF THE RUSSIAN NAVY

CONSIDER:

·      Russia built Nord Stream. It alone had full access to, and knowledge of, the pipes’ seafloor layout.

·      Russia patrolled the sea lanes in the Baltic. Even a minnow could not get through that net.

·      The Russian navy is based at Kaliningrad, Murmansk, and St. Petersburg, around the Baltic Sea. Russia laid the transmission pipes and it alone had the overwhelming monopoly of access over surface and undersea territory.

·      Russia guaranteed the security of Nord Stream. Its naval cruisers, submarines, other surveillance air-and-seacraft, commercial shipping, as well as underwater drones and sensors, secured the integrity of the transmission lines. No foreign craft could have passed undetected.

·      Russia maintained the Nord Stream pipelines with crews 24/7 at the scene.

·      The less than 1% of the pipeline that was destroyed can easily be repaired by the concern that maintains it. Since there are intermediary shut off valves along the pipeline, Russia can at will - and already has - shut off the flow of gas. It can resume it at will.

·      The 99%+ left of the pipeline is still protected. As a result of the Kremlin’s act of sabotage, Russia incurred no significant financial loss or burden, but gained propaganda value in return for its sowing of discontent.

·      The U.S. has no incentive to create energy shortages to an already energy-deficient Europe. Or to its NATO military allies fighting the war. All Europe depend on fossil fuels.

·      Could Ukraine have sabotaged the pipeline? No, Ukraine is not in the geographical vicinity. Ukraine to date could not even take out Russia’s naval assets in the Crimea – on Ukraine’s own soil! Moreover, Ukraine has no upside benefit for damaging the friendly nations on which it depends for its very survival; nations that supply it with military and humanitarian aid.

THE BOTTOM LINE

The idea that NATO-allied nations had sabotaged Nord Stream without cause, or incentive, or financial gain, at a time the pipelines were already almost entirely shut down and literally useless, is a literal “pipe dream.” Contrary to the unimaginative and/or disingenuous spin, there’s ample incentive for Russia, losing the war preceding the “sabotage,” to have damaged its own pipeline to justify its escalation and narratives of “western hostility” against the Fatherland.

The Nord Streams will not transmit energy for the foreseeable future. They will not become a source of “major revenue” for Russia either, as the fabulists on the extremes characterized it. Nor as a weapon for blackmail against Europe the fabulists conveniently ignored.

Europe will reactivate its coal mines, off shore platforms, and reactors. Best yet, Europe will reward Russia with a multi-billion Euro loss on the white elephant that will become neither operational, nor a source of revenue, nor a weapon for blackmail. Better yet, deprive Russia of future revenue forever.

The U.S. had nothing to do with the sabotage of the pipeline.

As for Vladimir Putin’s historic miscalculation waging a war it cannot win, at least not on his terms?

Epic Fail.

© Andrew G, Benjamin

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Andrew G. Benjamin is in finance, real estate and equities, a former advisor to New York City mayor ‘s office (Subcommittee on Taxation, Finance and the Budget). Benjamin wrote extensively about politics, transnational and domestic, intelligence and military affairs, security and strategy, economic issues, Mideast, terrorism, technology and high end audio.

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